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UnitedHealth's (UNH) UnitedHealthcare Unit to Drive Q1 Earnings

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UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH - Free Report) is set to release first-quarter 2023 results on Apr 14, before the opening bell. As the company has significant exposure to the healthcare business, continued membership growth is likely to have aided the quarterly performance. Community-based and senior offerings are expected to have aided the unit.

UnitedHealthcare Business

Through this segment, UNH offers healthcare benefits around the world. While it has significant exposure to the Medicare and Medicaid markets, it also serves individuals and employers. The defensive properties of the sector enable UnitedHealth to maintain its momentum despite economic headwinds. In the last reported quarter, the segment’s revenues jumped 11.8% year over year to $63 billion, while operating income improved 38.2% to $2.9 billion.

UnitedHealthcare's Q4 Performance

Considering the unit’s products, premiums increased 12.1% year over year to $60.1 billion in the fourth quarter while service revenues rose 3.2% to $2.5 billion. Total revenues from Employer & Individual Domestic, Medicare & Retirement, and Community & State businesses came in at $60.9 billion, increasing 12.1%. Also, from global operations, UNH reported revenues of $2,168 million, up 5.6% year over year.

Forecast for Q1 Segment Performance

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UnitedHealthcare’s revenues indicates a 10.7% year-over-year increase from the year-ago level of $62.6 billion while our estimate suggests a 9.3% rise. The consensus mark for first-quarter operating income signals a 4.8% year-over-year rise from $3,798 million a year ago.

The consensus mark for first-quarter 2023 medical care ratio is pegged at 82.5%, indicating a deterioration from the year-ago level of 82%, while our estimate of 82.4% suggests a lower slump.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2023 global revenues indicates 9.3% year-over-year growth from $2,133 million. The consensus mark for UnitedHealthcare’s Community & State revenues suggests an 11% rise from the year-ago period’s $15.5 billion.

The consensus mark for Medicare & Retirement business’ revenues signals 10.7% year-over-year growth from $29.1 billion a year ago while our estimate indicates a 9.6% improvement.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UnitedHealthcare’s total number of people served in commercial domestic business indicates a 2% increase from the year-ago level of 26,410 thousand while our estimate predicts a 1.6% rise.

Final Thoughts

The UnitedHealthcare unit is expected to have positioned the company for remarkable year-over-year growth. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNH’s first-quarter earnings signals a 13.8% increase from the prior-year figure of $5.49 per share while our estimate suggests a 12.5% rise. The consensus estimate for revenues of $89.4 billion indicates an 11.6% increase from the year-ago reported figure while our estimate suggests a 10.9% rise.

However, higher costs and expenses might have affected the margins in the first quarter, making an earnings beat uncertain. Our estimate for medical costs indicates an 11% year-over-year increase while we expect operating expenses to have jumped 13.5%. Further, we expect the cost of products sold to have jumped 2.6% year over year in the to-be-reported quarter.

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for UnitedHealth this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

UnitedHealth has an Earnings ESP of -1.20% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies from the broader Medical space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

Bio-Rad Laboratories, Inc. (BIO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.16% and is a Zacks #1 Ranked player.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Bio-Rad’s earnings per share for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $3.24, which remained stable over the past week. BIO beat earnings estimates thrice in the past four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 27.5%.

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.96% and a Zacks Rank #3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AstraZeneca’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at 85 cents per share, which witnessed one upward estimate revision in the past 30 days against none in the opposite direction. AZN beat earnings estimates in all of the past four quarters, the average surprise being 7.8%.

Amgen Inc. (AMGN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +14.54% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Amgen’s bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $3.93 per share, which remained stable over the past week. AMGN beat earnings estimates in all the past four quarters, the average being 3.4%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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